How to verify a tipster's results step by step
In 5 steps and less than an hour you can find out if a tipster really wins or just looks like it. Recording, odds, yield and the truth behind the numbers.
Step 1: Record every pick from day one
Every time they publish a pick, note it down with the exact odds, stake (if stated), date and market. It doesn't matter whether you like the pick or not, record everything.
If you use a spreadsheet or an app, this process takes less than a minute per pick. The key is not skipping any. A partial record is useless for evaluating anyone.
Step 2: Compare published odds with real odds
Many tipsters post odds that are no longer available by the time you see the pick. Sometimes because the odds moved quickly, sometimes because they deliberately post inflated odds.
Check the odds at your bookmaker the moment you see the pick. If there's a constant 5-10% gap between what they publish and what you find, that tipster isn't giving you a useful service.
Closing odds are a key reference for understanding whether a tipster has a real edge. This connects directly with the concept of Closing Line Value.
Track your bets, analyse your real yield and manage your bankroll with data, not intuition.
Try StakeMaster free →Step 3: Calculate the real yield after one month
With your own record, calculate yield: net profit divided by total staked, multiplied by 100. If you need the detail, here's how to calculate it step by step.
If they claim a 12% yield and your record shows 2%, one of you is lying. And it's not you.
Step 4: Look for consistency, not one-off spikes
One good month doesn't make a good tipster. You need to see consistency over weeks and months. Good and bad streaks exist because of variance, not because of skill or lack thereof.
Check whether yield stays steadily positive or depends on a few lucky picks. A tipster who gains 20% one month and loses 15% the next doesn't have control: they have random luck.
If after verifying you discover the numbers don't add up, stop paying. And if you spot the classic warning signs, review the red flags guide for fakes to confirm your suspicions.
Step 5: Decide with data, not gut feeling
After recording, comparing odds and calculating yield, you have everything you need to make an informed decision.
If the tipster meets all three points, they could be a good investment. If not, you already know the answer. Use your own record as the basis for deciding.
You can also cross-reference this information with the signs of a reliable tipster for a complete picture.
Frequently asked questions
At least 50-100 picks for a first impression, but reliable conclusions require 200-300 or more. With fewer than 50 picks, any result is dominated by variance and you can't distinguish skill from luck. Patience at this stage saves you money later.
It's a sign of poor transparency. Without defined stake you can't calculate a real yield. For your record, assign 1 unit to each pick and calculate performance on that basis. If yield is negative at flat stake, with variable stake it's probably worse.
Yes, if they have a free channel or post some open picks. Record those picks for a month and calculate yield. If the free picks aren't profitable, it's unlikely the paid ones will be. If they are, you have a basis for deciding whether it's worth paying.
Verifying a tipster is easy with the right tool. With StakeMaster you can record each pick in seconds, calculate yield automatically and see at a glance whether that tipster truly wins or just looks like it.
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